Here's what happened in the last 24 hours that should have sent Bitcoin to the moon:

Bullish news across the board. Risk-on environment. Liquidity returning to markets. Everything crypto investors have been praying for.

And yet? Bitcoin can't break above $116K.

In fact, Bitcoin is now trailing both gold and the S&P 500 in year-to-date performance. Let that sink in. The asset class that was supposed to outperform everything, the one that promised institutional adoption would send it parabolic, is getting beat by boomer assets.

This wasn't the script. BTC was supposed to be different. Digital gold. Uncorrelated. The future of money. All it needed was those big players to show up with their billions.

Well, the big players showed up. And that might actually be the problem.

When massive hedge funds and investment banks enter a market, the dynamics change. These aren't retail traders YOLOing their savings. These are sophisticated institutions that can move millions (or billions) worth of BTC in single orders.

They can (and likely do) suppress price volatility either accidentally through sheer order size... or intentionally through strategic positioning.

Now, I'm not saying I'm a full-blown conspiracy theorist who believes BTC's price is being artificially manipulated. But I AM saying it's weird that billions of dollars are flowing into Bitcoin and Ethereum through ETFs and treasury companies, while prices just... sit there.

And here’s a realistic bull case that I think makes sense: Twitter trader Luc pointed out that the last three times Bitcoin was around $108K (where it’s at now), it went up by a decent margin afterward. He's not making Tom Lee's wild "$200K by year-end" predictions. He's just looking at support levels and historical patterns.

And honestly, that's a thesis that tracks. The institutional money is here. It's just moving slower and more methodically than retail's FOMO runs. If you're frustrated by the price action, that's the cost of institutional adoption. Big money moves deliberately and slowly, not quickly like we’re used to.

The question is whether you're patient enough to wait for it to deploy.

I know this hurts to hear, but some of the highest-performing ways to get crypto exposure in 2025 are actually through stocks. Annoying? Yes. True? Also yes.

Which brings us to Galaxy Digital (GLXY), a stock that might be one of the smartest plays in both crypto AND AI right now.

What does Galaxy actually do?

Galaxy Digital is basically a one-stop shop for institutional crypto infrastructure. They've helped launch over 15 digital asset treasury companies (DATs), including major players like SBET, FORD, and BMNR. Every time a company wants to build a MicroStrategy-style Bitcoin treasury, there's a good chance Galaxy is involved (and is earning hefty fees from it).

But here's where it gets interesting: Galaxy has $3 billion in crypto, cash, and crypto infrastructure investments on its balance sheet.

And that's before we even talk about their data center business on the AI side.

The thesis from Twitter trader Duncan (@FloodCapital): Galaxy is trading at $35 right now, but has a legitimate path to $250 if you believe in both crypto adoption AND AI infrastructure buildout.

Think about it:

Why a stock instead of just buying crypto directly? Because Galaxy gives you leveraged exposure to crypto's growth plus diversification into adjacent businesses. When Bitcoin rips, Galaxy's balance sheet benefits. When companies need infrastructure to enter crypto, Galaxy earns fees. When AI needs compute power, Galaxy's data centers profit.

It's crypto exposure with a business model underneath it instead of just price speculation.

Not financial advice, and always DYOR. But if you're looking for plays beyond just stacking sats, Galaxy Digital is worth understanding.

In a seismic shift for the stablecoin market, Circle's USDC just overtook Tether's USDT in onchain activity, according to a new report from JPMorgan.

Let's be clear: USDT still has the bigger market cap (about 2.5x USDC's). But the momentum has clearly shifted, and it's being driven by one thing: regulation.

The numbers tell the story:

What's driving the flip? Europe's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, which went into effect mid-2024. MiCA set clear standards for stablecoin issuers around transparency, reserves, and auditing.

USDC sailed through MiCA compliance. USDT? Not so much. Tether's lack of authorization led to its removal from several major European exchanges. When institutions and sophisticated traders had to choose between a regulated stablecoin and one without clear regulatory approval, they chose the regulated one.

JPMorgan's analysts noted that USDC's “transparent reserves and regular audits” are particularly attractive to institutional users who can't afford regulatory uncertainty, according to Coindesk. Banks, hedge funds, and asset managers increasingly prefer assets that won't get them in trouble with compliance departments.

USDT still dominates in emerging markets where regulatory clarity matters less and capital controls make Tether's opacity more feature than bug. But in developed markets with clear regulatory frameworks, USDC is becoming the default choice.

What this means for you is that the stablecoin market is maturing along predictable lines. Regulated, compliant assets are winning in jurisdictions with clear rules. Shadow banking alternatives are winning where capital controls and regulations are restrictive.

JPMorgan believes USDC's regulatory model could set the standard for global stablecoin growth moving forward. If you're building anything in DeFi or crypto payments, betting on compliant stablecoins is probably the smart long-term play.

We really appreciate you reading our newsletter, and we’d love to hear your feedback.

This week showed us something important: the meaning of “good news” in crytpo has fundamentally changed.

In previous cycles, a Fed rate cut would send Bitcoin up 10% in a day. A major trade deal would trigger immediate FOMO. But institutional markets don't work that way. They price things in slowly, carefully, with a high value for risk management (which retail never cared about).

Is Bitcoin being suppressed by big money? Maybe. Is it just consolidating at a healthy support level before the next leg up? Also maybe.

The honest answer is we don't know, and anyone who claims otherwise is selling you something.

What we DO know is that the infrastructure being built right now (stablecoin regulatory frameworks, treasury company models, institutional custody solutions) is laying groundwork for the next actual wave of adoption. Galaxy Digital isn't making money helping companies buy Bitcoin because it's a fad. USDC isn't flipping USDT in usage because institutions are gambling.

Real money moves slowly. If you're frustrated by Bitcoin's price action, remember that adoption has a cost.

The bull case hasn't changed. The timeline just seems slower to us.

Same time next week? Sounds good.

Until next time,
- The Chain Team